People PollingVotaçãoVotaciónОпрос людей

Stay Updated: Posts | Comments   Follow us on Twitter

Timing: 10 mins

Ingredients:

  • A good-sized audience – 10 or more (the bigger the better)
  • Pens & paper for all

Recipe:

It is best to sneak this exercise in when it is least expected.
Start by selecting something in the room that is not easily counted or estimated. Take the time to write the exact number down and hide it from the audience.
Then, have each individual quickly and privately write down their own estimate.
Gather all of the estimates and calculate the average.
Cross your fingers and unveil the number that you wrote down earlier. It should be relatively close to the group average.

I have done similar exercises about a dozen or so times and the results are usually spot on. However, there is always a chance that the results could be off, so always make sure to start by announcing that you want to perform an experiment together. Participants will understand if the results are not perfect.

Some things you can use to estimate:

  • Your weight – although people tend to be generous and the estimates are usually low. 🙂
  • Number of books available on Amazon.com
  • Number of words on a page – I’ve had the most success with this one. In a class environment, I’ll use the lab write-up and have the students write their estimate on the back.
  • Number of steps it takes to walk from one side of the room to the other – this one is fun, but you could get accused of rigging the outcome.
  • Balloons in the room – only works if you played the 99 Test Balloons game earlier. 😉
  • Please leave a comment to share some of your ideas and experiences.

Other helpful hints:

  • To keep things quick, open a spread sheet to type in everybody’s estimate as they show them to you. This also makes it easy to calculate the average in front of everybody.
  • Analyze the data with the class. You will likely get a very wide variance. I often find that no one individual estimate is as close as the average. This speaks to the true wisdom of the crowd and of the importance of diversity.
  • To make it even more interesting, give a prize to whomever had the most accurate estimate.

Learning Points:

  • The accuracy of the group estimate is usually stronger than any one individual’s.
  • The larger and more diverse the crowd is, the better the estimate.
  • Agile embraces this principle by involving the whole team in estimating and planning and by encouraging the creation of cross-functional teams.

Tempo: 10 minutos
Ingredientes:
  • Uma audiência significativa – 10 ou mais (quanto maior melhor)
  • Caneta e papel para todos

Receita:

O melhor é improvisar esse exercício quando  for menos esperado.
Comece selecionando alguma coisa ao redor que não pode ser facilmente contado ou estimado.
Reserve um tempo para anotar o número exato e escoda-o da audiência.
Então, peça que cada indivíduo escreva rapidamente e de forma reservada sua própria estimativa.
Colete todas as estimativas e calcule a média.
Cruze os dedos e revele o número que você havia anotado anteriormente. Esse número deve ser relativamente próximo à média do grupo.
Eu tenho feito exercícios similares tantas vezes e os resultados são geralmente acertados. Entretanto, sempre há uma chance que os resultados possam sair fora, então sempre tenha certeza de começar anunciando que você  quer realizar um experimento em conjunto. Os participantes irão entender se os resultados não forem perfeitos.
Algumas coisas que podem ser usadas para estimar:

  • Seu peso – embora algumas pessoas tendem a ser generosas e as estimativas são geralmente baixas.
  • Número de livros disponíveis no Amazon.com
  • Número de palavras em uma página – Eu tenho tido mais sucesso com este. Em um ambiente de sala de aula, eu usaria o bloco de anotações do laboratório e os estudantes escreveriam suas estimativas no verso.
  • Número de passos para caminhar de um lado até o outro lado da sala – esse é engraçado, mas você pode ser acusado de estar burlando o resultado.
  • Balões na sala – só funciona se você jogou o  jogo 99 Balões de Teste previamente.
  • Por favor, deixe um comentário para compartihar suas idéias e experiências.

Outras dicas úteis:

  • Para manter as coisas rápidas, abra uma planilha e digite a estimativa de todos como foi mostrado a você. Isso também torna fácil o cálculo da média na frente de todos.
  • Analise os dados com a classe. Você provavelmente vai notar uma grande variação. Eu sempre percebo que nenhuma estimativa individual é tão próxima como a média. Isso fala sobre a verdeira sabedoria coletiva e a importância da diversidade.
  • Para tornar ainda mais interessante, dê um prêmio para quem tiver a estimativa mais precisa.

Pontos de aprendizagem:

  • A precisão da estimativa do grupo é geralmente mais forte que qualquer estimativa individual.
  • Quanto maior e mais diversificado o público, melhor a estimativa.
  • O Ágil embarca esses princípios envovendo todo o time nas estimativas e planejamentos e incentivando a criação de times multi-funcionais.

Duración: 10 minutos
Materiales:
  • Una audiencia significativa – 10 o más (cuantos más, mejor)
  • Papel y boli para todos
Receta:
Es mejor introducir este ejercicio cuando menos se espera.
Comienza seleccionando algo en el aula que no sea fácil de contar o de estimar. Anota el número exacto y escóndelo a los asistentes.
Entonces haz que cada participante anote su propia estimación rápidamente y en privado.
Reúne todas las estimaciones y calcula la media. Cruza los dedos y revela el número que anotaste previamente. Debería ser relativamente cercano a la media obtenida por el grupo.
He hecho ejercicios similares aproximadamente una docena de veces, y los resultados son generalmente acertados. De todas formas siempre existe la posibilidad de que los resultados estén muy alejados, así que asegúrate siempre de empezar anunciando que quieres realizar un experimento. Los participantes lo entenderán si los resultados no son perfectos.
Algunas cosas que puedes usar para estimar:
  • Tu peso – aunque la gente tiende a ser generosa y las estimaciones son normalmente bajas.
  • Número de libros disponibles en Amazon.com
  • Número de palabras en una página – Con éste es con el que he tenido más éxito. En un ambiente de clase, yo usaría the lab write-up y haría que los estudiantes anotaran sus estimaciones en la parte de atrás.
  • Número de pasos que cuesta caminar de un lado a otro de la habitación – éste es divertido, pero te podrían acusar de amañar el resultado
  • Globos en la habitación – sólo funciona si has jugado previamente al juego 99 Test Balloon.
  • Por favor deja un comentario para compartir tus ideas y experiencias.

Otras sugerencias útiles:

  • Para acelerar, abre una hoja de cálculo para introducir las estimaciones de todos a medida que te las dicen. Esto facilita también el calcular la media delante de todo el mundo
  • Analiza los datos con la clase. Probablemente obtengas una varianza grande. Normalmente encuentro que ninguna estimación individual es tan exacta como la media. Esto nos habla de la verdadera sabiduría de la multitud y de la importancia de la diversidad.
  • Para hacerlo más interesante, da un premio al que más se acerque en su estimación.

Puntos de Aprendizaje:

  • La exactitud de la estimación del grupo es generalmente mayor que la de cualquiera de sus individuos.
  • Cuanto mayor y más diverso es el grupo, mejor es la estimación.
  • Agile incorpora este principio involucrando a todo el equipo en la estimación y planificación, y estimulando la creación de equipos multi-funcionales.

    Время: 10 минут
    Материалы:

    • целевая аудитория в количестве 10 и более человек (чем больше, тем лучше)
    • Ручки и бумага для всех

    Правила: Лучше давать это упражнение, когда оно меньше всего ожидается.
    Для начала выберите в комнате что-нибудь, что не просто сосчитать или оценить. Не торопитесь. Запишите точное число и спрячьте листик от аудитории.
    Затем, пусть каждый участник быстро и в частном порядке запишет свое собственное предполагаемое число.
    Соберите все варианты и вычислите среднее число.
    Скрестите пальцы и объявите число, записанное ранее. Оно должно быть относительно близко к среднему числу группы.
    Я делал подобные упражнения приблизительно дюжину раз, и результаты, как правило, точны. Однако всегда есть вероятность того, что результат может быть далек от правильного, так что желательно начать с объявления, что вы хотите провести эксперимент. Участники поймут, если результаты не будут совершенными.
    Некоторые вещи, которые можно использовать для оценки:

    • Ваш вес – хотя, несмотря на то, что люди имеют тенденцию быть щедрыми, предположения обычно невысоки.
    • Количество книг, доступное на Amazon.com
    • Количество слов на странице – у меня было наибольшее число благоприятных исходов с этим примером. В классе я буду использовать лабораторное описание и студенты пишут свои оценки на обороте.
    • Количество шагов, необходимое для прогулки с одной стороны комнаты в другую – это забава, но тут вас могут обвинить в подтасовке результата.
    • Воздушные шары в комнате – работает, только если раньше вы играли в игру “99 Тестовых Шариков (99 Test Balloons)”
    • Пожалуйста, оставьте свои комментарии, поделитесь своими идеями и опытом.

    Другие полезные советы:

    • Для упрощения откройте электронную таблицу для того, чтобы напечатать предположения каждого человека, когда они показывают их вам. Это также позволяет легко вычислить среднюю величину на глазах у всех.
    • Проанализируйте данные вместе с группой. Вероятно, вы получите довольно широкую дисперсию. Я часто нахожу, что ни одна оценка отдельного человека так не близка к правильной, как средняя. Это говорит об истинной мудрости толпы (группы людей) и важности разнообразия.
    • Чтобы сделать упражнение более интересным, дайте приз тому, кто сделал наиболее точное предположение.

    Выводы:

    • Групповая оценка обычно более точна, чем оцека, данная любым из участников индивидуально.
    • Чем больше и более разнообразна группа людей, тем лучше результат.
    • Agile использует этот принцип, привлекая целую команду к оценке и планированию и поощряя создание кросс-функциональных команд.
    Перевод Vladimir Kurka

    VN:F [1.9.16_1159]
    Rate This
    Rating: 4.7/5 (6 votes cast)
    People PollingVotaçãoVotaciónОпрос людей, 4.7 out of 5 based on 6 ratings
    Print Friendly, PDF & Email
    6 Responses to "People PollingVotaçãoVotaciónОпрос людей"
    • Joe Krebs July 15, 2009 at 9:06 am

      Thanks for making this recipe available and sharing. I have used this tasty cupcake in the past, especially polling my weight. You are right, students were ususally flattering 😉

      VA:F [1.9.16_1159]
      Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    • Peter Borsella December 2, 2009 at 1:15 pm

      I decided to give this exercise a try during a large group presentation. There were 14 tables of 5 – 7 people each. I had a handout for their reference, and late in the presentation I asked them to first take a minute to come up with an estimate of the number of words on the handout and write down that number. Then, as a variant of the exercise, I asked them to take a minute to work with their table-mates and come up with a consensus number. I then collected the team consensus numbers rather than the individual numbers. Here were the results:
      The average across all tables: 737
      The actual number of words: 635
      Not bad! They were quite impressed that the average was only about 100 words away from the actual, and they were able to come up with this in just two minutes!
      I then gave a prize to the individual with the closest number.
      Great exercise, and thanks!

      VA:F [1.9.16_1159]
      Rating: 3.7/5 (3 votes cast)
    • Mick Maguire January 12, 2010 at 12:22 pm

      First attempt for me didn’t work so well. I put 375 dots on a small whiteboard then showed it to my audience. Estimates ranged from 150 – 400 dots with an average of 252. The average fell only just within the top 50th percentile of averages from the group and was not clearly more reliable than asking an individual. As you say “there is always a chance that the results could be off”, and it did lead to a good discussion about the exercise itself.

      VA:F [1.9.16_1159]
      Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    • […] People Polling by Don McGreal, an estimating exercise used widely in training and […]

    • Ellen Grove June 6, 2010 at 6:35 pm

      I’ve done this activity a couple of times asking the group to estimate the number of pages in a book. In one instance, the average of the group estimate (over 13 people) turned out to be exactly the number of pages in the book, which was impressive almost to the point of undermining the activity because of the perceived improbability of this happening. Lots of fun!

      VA:F [1.9.16_1159]
      Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    • Kathleen Ashelford January 23, 2011 at 9:03 pm

      I did two variations of this exercise with a group of 10 participants, estimating 1) the number of steps it took for one of our team to cross the room; 2) the number of pebbles in a jar.

      Amazingly, no one had seen this exercise before, and a few were skeptical of the premise. Each time, the average estimate of the group was within 10% of the correct number. However, in each case, one person actually guessed the exact number – but only one. It does illustrate that it’s better to go with group wisdom than trust your luck that one person will get it exactly right.

      VA:F [1.9.16_1159]
      Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    Leave a Reply:

    Discuss Login
    Recent Comments